Methodology

The Warmth Engine Observatory tracks observable coordination and fragmentation dynamics across geopolitical blocs through verified events and mapped coordination connections.

Primary differentiator: The 7-type Coordination Connections taxonomy is the first systematic framework for tracking verified relationships between AI infrastructure events.

All classifications are based on observable facts from official public documentation. Implementation evidence is required, not announcements. Hidden intent, private communications, and future intentions are explicitly outside scope.

Events progress through five sequential stages. Failure at Stage 1 or 2 excludes the event from the database. Stages 3–5 classify qualifying events and document their relationships.

Events must demonstrate geopolitical significance to qualify for database entry. Four assessment pathways apply based on event nature, with an auto-qualification route for multi-nation coordination.

Events are classified by Event Type — the mechanism by which the action occurs and the actor type involved. Event Type is distinct from Domain (which classifies subject matter) and Tier (which classifies coordination scale).

Events are classified into three tiers based on bloc participation and coordination dynamics — whether events represent coordination or fragmentation. Each tier captures a distinct dynamic in AI infrastructure alignment.

Events are assigned to one of four domains based on their primary subject matter. Domain classification captures what the event is primarily about.

Durability ranges reflect typical commitment horizons for events within each domain.

Each event is tagged with the industry whose operational landscape its documented provisions most directly address. Industry tags are distinct from classification — they identify an external relationship rather than an intrinsic property of the event.

Primary/secondary structure: Each event receives one primary tag. Up to two secondary tags document specific pathways to other industries via mechanism statements.

Confidence Levels: CC-V (Verified) requires primary source documentation. CC-E (Established) requires authoritative statement with corroboration. CC-A (Analytical) permits analyst assessment for parallel policy patterns.

Auditability: Every connection can be verified against the evidence cited.

WEO aims to meet the verification rigour of major financial indices. All events require either 2+ primary sources OR 1 primary + 2 corroborating sources. The 6-month verification lag ensures implementation confirmation before database entry.

Low-confidence events (<70%) are excluded from the database. Only HIGH (90%+) and MEDIUM (70–90%) confidence events appear in WEO.

WEO applies proven institutional methodologies to tracking AI infrastructure coordination dynamics.